The Irish Mitsubishi FTO Owners Club

Just herd today of Redundancies at work Masonite Ireland in Carrick-on-Shannon.

Any jobs going

Sorry to hear that Mick, presume the drop in building and home improvements and general quietening of things is to blame.


perhaps you could open a pie shop?

Jeez tough luck mick. Happening all round though.

How about this for making money

Well I'm safe anyway, I work for a large American computer company... what could possibly go wrong

Ah ya, I'm the same, working for an architectural practice, sure the construction industry is booming!

Sorry to hear that Mick. Yeah, structural engineer myself, our place let 5 go only a few weeks ago. I was lucky... for now at least.

Bernard wrote:Well I'm safe anyway, I work for a large American computer company... what could possibly go wrong

Aren't all Americans on the large side???

Gfalls, can you please make some attempt to keep on topic in threads?!

CJ

How about this for a new career http://www.bigdadspies.com.au/

CJ wrote:Gfalls, can you please make some attempt to keep on topic in threads?!

CJ

THANK YOU!!!

Scary stuff lads and I hate to say it but I fear it will get a lot worse over the coming 18 months. Beware of false hopes for any levelling off if ECB cut rates due to German economic slow down - this will be as the say "a dead cat bounce"

don't buy a house (if you haven't done yet)
don't change jobs (if you haven't done yet)

The exchequer is talking about being 9.5billion euro in debt by the end of the year. That's absolutely huge for us. I would not be surprised if they adjusted income tax rates as they are suggesting.

yet they continue with fundind your tax payers money on WORTHLESS projects like the underground dart link from connolley to hueston! who needs this?! we have a LUAS platform just outside connolly that goes direct to hueston.. why build an underground dart at the cost of 2.9 billion euro?!
No excuse. Total mismanagement. Hopefully some of the citizenry will be more bothered and take some action when they are another 50euro per week down in pay due to income tax rises to pay for worthless projects.

I'm sorry (near tears), I cannot talk about this stuff. It hurts too much.

mcgon1979 wrote:more bothered and take some action when they are another 50euro per week down in pay due to income tax rises to pay for worthless projects.

I'm sorry (near tears), I cannot talk about this stuff. It hurts too much.

Unfortunately a rise in income tax is the lesser of coming evils. I recently overheard an american in a coffee shop complaining about how expensive Ireland is in general - quote "america is supposed to be one of the richest countries in the world but this place is 10 times more expensive - you guys are ripped off".

Problem is our fundamentals are shakey at best - 20%+ GDP based on construction (crazy), pricing ourselves out of the export market, tourism in decline due to internal costs, massively dependant on foreign investment which is already looking elsewhere, massive exposure to ECB or Euribor rate hikes, etc. Interestingly the banks have started basing their rates on Euribor now but if the ECB was to go higher than Euribor they will use that instead. Cheap credit is a thing of the past and buy to let investors coming off the back of 2 year interest only mortgages will find life difficult.

In a nutshell we are heading into a recession and many more people are going to suffer hard times. I don't think it will be another 1980's across the board but for some it will be worse. On the flip side I'd expect the cost of living to reduce to match peoples available disposable income so for anyone who's industry stays strong it could be a boom.

Ultimately cash will be king.

The original FF/PD partnership project had at its core a financial system where the workers and employers along with the government would benefit from a pay rise control system and a no strike clause.
This would allow economic growth. For their part the government reduced the rate of taxation on wages. Even though people were barely getting enough pay rises to keep up with inflation their net income went up because of the lower rate of taxation. Everybody got better off, the employers more than anyone else.
The lowering of the European Central Bank Tax rate after we joined the Euro meant that the cost of borrowing went down. So now we had more to spend and credit was cheap. We went ballistic spending.The people who sold things raised their prices to match the available spending splurge. Thats why we are so expensive now as you rightly point out. Charlie McCreevy tried to put a sneaky device in the system to make people save a bit for the future. The SSIA Account where the gov gave every saver a bonus 25% if they saved for five years. Boom Time for everyone. money was abundant, cheap credit, holidays, new cars, 2nd car, house. It was the best of times.
Now that the bubble has burst due to lack of control on the building sector, high cost of goods and services, fuel prices that have caused ESB and Gas to seek 40% increases and GOT them!!!! 60,000 jobs lost since last budget etc the tax returns for the gov have shrunk away to levels that existed in the late eighties when income tax was very high.
The gov now have little option but to raise rates of income tax to get money into the coffers.
Its that or sit on their hands until the recession/depression is over.
These big vanity infrastructural projects should have been paid for during the boom. Its too late now. your right, it will get HELLA worse before it gets anyway better. without question. And I'm one of the luckier ones, I cannot imagine those who just started a 100% mortgage before the credit crunch and are on average industrial wage. they are fcuked given the rise in esb/gas and general living expenses, not mention interest rates. nasty times ahead for them.

soc wrote:I don't think it will be another 1980's across the board but for some it will be worse

This is a key point buried in all of the doom and gloom - remember, our parents had it hard with 13% interest rates and 65% payable on the punt at the top rate of income tax (feel free to correct me on the figures). While it will be tough for a lot of people, at least we're not talking 1983 recession times.

CJ

mcgon1979 wrote:don't buy a house (if you haven't done yet)
don't change jobs (if you haven't done yet)

The exchequer is talking about being 9.5billion euro in debt by the end of the year. That's absolutely huge for us. I would not be surprised if they adjusted income tax rates as they are suggesting.

yet they continue with fundind your tax payers money on WORTHLESS projects like the underground dart link from connolley to hueston! who needs this?! we have a LUAS platform just outside connolly that goes direct to hueston.. why build an underground dart at the cost of 2.9 billion euro?!
No excuse. Total mismanagement. Hopefully some of the citizenry will be more bothered and take some action when they are another 50euro per week down in pay due to income tax rises to pay for worthless projects.

I'm sorry (near tears), I cannot talk about this stuff. It hurts too much.

Don't be talking down the economy now (as our polititions who put us in this mess would say). On the Hueston Connolly link, are they really talking about a subway? Where a luas line already exists. There is also a little known about rail link joining the two, only used for freight, and occasssionally on match days. I think there is some technical reason why it's not normally used -I'm sure said reason is pretty poor though.

This country is way too expensive for every thing, cars, houses, food, entertainment you name it. When we were all 'rich' a few years ago it was fashionable to splurge on any and everything (even if you weren't rich and had to borrow). There were no shortage of cute whore salesmen -estate agents, car dealers, publicans, restauranteurs, retailers, adjusting prices to match our naive appetite to spend. And to an extent who could brame them, The vanity associated with money and keeping up with the Jones's had gotten to crazy heights. Jo public would have to take his sahare of th eblame for rising prices. Now that it's fashionable to be thifty, the price gaugers will really feel the pinch.

While I'm on my rant -I think the minimum wage is too high has been partly responsible for rising costs, and should be removed. Let the market find the rate. This works both ways, not just in favour of the employer An employer offering €1 an hour will very quickly find there is not much interest in his job.

CJ wrote:remember, our parents had it hard with 13% interest rates and 65% payable on the punt at the top rate of income tax (feel free to correct me on the figures). While it will be tough for a lot of people, at least we're not talking 1983 recession times.
CJ

Well actually we kind of are CJ. I don't think you can really compare income tax rates or mortgage interest rates. Yes our parents paid 13% interest rates but a house cost 2.5 - 3 times the average industrial wage back then. Even with the high band of income tax life was more affordable for most people.

Today we pay 3.75 - 5% ish (depending on your rate) mortgage interest but the average house in Dublin is 9 times!!!! the average industrial wage. And thats considering the average industrial wage is 38,000 which I still think is too high a guesstimate and a "made up" number based on total GDP divided by population. consider the cost of electricity / food nowadays. how much of the average wage goes on them now? and in our parents time? Percentage wise its alot more now.

I know too many professionals in their 20s on less than 35k to believe the 38k average number. mind you alot of rich people are on 100k+ and some bank directors pay themselves bonus of 1mil per year which gives an unrealistic average industrial wage. Realistically I'd bet its more like 32k.

Ireland has priced herself out of everything and someone is gonna have to pay for all that credit we thought we had to live the high life.... To borrow a phrase used by Bush to describe wall street. We got drunk, and now we have a hangover.

I think its as bad as it could be to be honest, but it won't kick in for another 12 months. They (government) are talking about recovery in 2010. They make me laugh. I know alot of people in negative equity now. It could take 5 years to get back to a place where their remaining mortgage is worth less than the house market value.
At the moment I have friends who took a 300k 100% mortgage to buy places 18 months ago. those places are now worth 260k. I hope none of them break up with their partners. Nothing worse than breaking up and then taking on 20k of debt too. could upset you.

btw Mustang, you are 100% correct. The minimum wage is one of the highest in the world. second highest in EU after Luxumbourg. We screwed ourselves there. Lots of immigrants (250k+) doing service jobs at minimum wage and shipping it home. 2billion to poland alone last year. The market should dictate minimum wage.

oh yeah... here you go mate. I wouldn't have believed it myself...

http://www.irishrail.ie/projects/dart_underground.asp

and

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ire ... 80921.html

Thankfully I'm only 21 and renting at the minute. I'm in a state job that doesn't pay well at the minute but it's secure. I'm not really affected (directly at least) by the downturn. Fair enough paying for goods & services etc affects me but I can cope. However I see so so many people I went to school with who took on trades and now are unemployed or on shaky ground. Some with kids etc. Without turning this into a political rant... the fat cats at the top of the Dail don't actually realise how much the ordinary joe has to deal with in times like these. They have their 200k salaries etc. so this won't even effect them. If you put control into incompetent hands, you can't expect anything less.

The Government are more interested in putting the L-Drivers off the road, cutting down on binge drinking, getting rid of the "energy wasting" lightbulbs and turning the country into a nanny state than they are at helping the ordinary, hard working person to make ends meet.

Mick. Sorry to hear about your circumstances. Tough brake. A friend of mine who's wedding I was at last year, was made redundant recently, he worked in construction/machinery etc. No sign of any proper work coming up. One income household, (his which has now stopped) wife, kid and mortgage to support. Mid 20's. I can't imagine how they are feeling

mcgon1979 wrote:The original FF/PD partnership project had at its core a financial system where the workers and employers along with the government would benefit from a pay rise control system and a no strike clause.
This would allow economic growth. For their part the government reduced the rate of taxation on wages. Even though people were barely getting enough pay rises to keep up with inflation their net income went up because of the lower rate of taxation. Everybody got better off, the employers more than anyone else.
The lowering of the European Central Bank Tax rate after we joined the Euro meant that the cost of borrowing went down. So now we had more to spend and credit was cheap. We went ballistic spending.The people who sold things raised their prices to match the available spending splurge. Thats why we are so expensive now as you rightly point out. Charlie McCreevy tried to put a sneaky device in the system to make people save a bit for the future. The SSIA Account where the gov gave every saver a bonus 25% if they saved for five years. Boom Time for everyone. money was abundant, cheap credit, holidays, new cars, 2nd car, house. It was the best of times.
Now that the bubble has burst due to lack of control on the building sector, high cost of goods and services, fuel prices that have caused ESB and Gas to seek 40% increases and GOT them!!!! 60,000 jobs lost since last budget etc the tax returns for the gov have shrunk away to levels that existed in the late eighties when income tax was very high.
The gov now have little option but to raise rates of income tax to get money into the coffers.
Its that or sit on their hands until the recession/depression is over.
These big vanity infrastructural projects should have been paid for during the boom. Its too late now. your right, it will get HELLA worse before it gets anyway better. without question. And I'm one of the luckier ones, I cannot imagine those who just started a 100% mortgage before the credit crunch and are on average industrial wage. they are fcuked given the rise in esb/gas and general living expenses, not mention interest rates. nasty times ahead for them.

I like your analysis - particularly the bit where you highlight people being responsible for their own situation. I read too many posts by bleeding hearts blaming everyone but joe public for the situation we're in now. Of course there are genuine hard luck stories and of course there is no one party to blame. But the amount of people (as you rightly point out) who acted like free money was growing on trees absolutely astounded me. One of the biggest mistakes the government made was not placing some restrictions on what SSIA's could be used for - I'm not sure how you'd manage something like that but surely it could have been done. Instead of using these savings sensibly so many people just blew them on new cars, new kitchens, holidays, etc. Rediculous! I know people like this and have little sympathy for them -

On the other hand, I genuinely feel for anyone who gets caught in the crossfire through no fault other than being in the wrong place at the wrong time, i.e. anyone losing their job because stupid people made Ireland an uneconomical place to be.

What's truely crazy is that, even though everyone is talking about recession (it's almost fashionable at this stage) a lot of people are still spending their euro like it's water - absolute madness! The amount of people I know in their early 30's who have little or no pension is incredible -


Mick, FWIW, I've total sympathy for you and don't for one minute include you in with the f**kwits splurging on X5's, etc funded through mortgage borrowing or SSIAs

And just in response to the immigrants comment. I don't mean any offence by this at all and I know the Irish done it in the 80's, but with the amount of money being paid to foreign people working here, the small percentage of it being put back into the economy is devastating. The more money being made in the country directly affects the cost of living and the minimum wage. However, the extra money is leaving the country and not balancing out the economy. When you consider that around 6 billion euro left our economy last year, it's not surprising the way things have gone. Of course the Polish etc have the right to come here and work I do not have any problem with this at all. It's just mismanagement by the Government yet again that lead to the associated problems.

CJ wrote:

soc wrote:I don't think it will be another 1980's across the board but for some it will be worse

This is a key point buried in all of the doom and gloom - remember, our parents had it hard with 13% interest rates and 65% payable on the punt at the top rate of income tax (feel free to correct me on the figures). While it will be tough for a lot of people, at least we're not talking 1983 recession times.

CJ

This is true enough - the only difference now is how the future can pan out - back in the 80's there was always scope for things to get better, even if people didn't realise at the time. These days interest rates are more likely to go up than down, tax is more likely to go up than down, property WILL fall and paper millionaires will disappear along with the equity they're leveraged against.

The reason I don't believe we'll see another 80's is because the generation of 40 somethings who've actually traded on their original properties are sitting pretty. Small mortgages, big enough houses (no need to trade up), experience and repuation built up in the job so less likely to get the chop (unless the whole place goes). Compare that to the generation of late 20's - 30's, where novice investors have 100% interest only mortgages, homeowners face rising interest rates, many are mortgaged to the hilt thanks to splurging on depreciating goods and most borrowings are up 5+ times GROSS annual income. Not a pretty picture against a backdrop of a global economic slowdown.

At some point the camels back will break - I'm just watching for that straw - when that happens some will suffer badly, some will struggle on and some will profit.

The government is the biggest employer in this country. And in fairness, they must carry ALOT of dead weight. 8000 civil servants work in the department of Agriculture for example. Doing what exactly?!?!

The public sector workers constantly bemoan the fact that their peers n the private sector are paid better? Marginally if at all in my opinion. but the private sector is RUTHLESS.. Job today, gone tomorrow. At least the public sector is safe. (part of the problem in this country).